Skip to main content

tv   Squawk Alley  CNBC  March 16, 2015 11:00am-12:01pm EDT

11:00 am
good morning. it is 10:00 a.m. at south by southwest in austin, texas. 11:00 a.m. here in wall street. "squawk alley" is live. ♪ ♪ welcome to "squawk alley" for a monday morning. joining us from south by southwest in austin, texas, is walter isaac son, ceo of the aspen institute. good morning to you, as always.
11:01 am
john fort is out. kayla is here. we're keeping an eye on the markets. dow is up 172. also oil, which stunningly has a -- below $43. >> looking forward to that fed meeting, seems like we are moving in new territory, at least for the near term in the euro. >> keep you honest on all of that stuff. let's get to walter this morning. benchmark's bill gurley once again warning of a tech bubble. this time in a speech at south by southwest, he says firms are willing to take risks on young tech companies with no real track record in business. he says, "there is no fear in silicon valley right now. a complete absence of fear." he went on to say the optimism could lead to the depth of what we call unicorns, those are start-ups worth more than a
11:02 am
billion dollars prior to their ipo. "i do think you will see some dead unicorns this year." walter, how big of a splash did gurley make down there? >> i think it's a big splash. i think both bill gurley and mark cuban down here have set a tone that we're in a tech bubble. the bubble may burst. on the other side, you have people like steve case saying maybe for the unicorn, maybe some of these big companies in silicon valley. but what's really happening is what steve case calls the rise of the rest. people who are making all sorts of apps, whether it be in austin or kansas city or new orleans or atlanta or miami. these new things are growing. their problem is not that they're in a bubble, but it's hard for them to scale. just thousands of new things. a guy named riley had done a
11:03 am
tablet for teachers and their kids. that's great. but how do you bring that to scale, when big companies are doing it? so i think the other conversation here is not that we're in a bubble, but we have a lot of start-ups. how do we accelerate them. do we make them scale. people like rick braddock, the entrepreneur in new york, he's helped fund something at the aspen institute, which is how do you bring to scale the ones that have already been successful start-ups. >> a tough lesson for some to learn is that not every business is scaleable. do you find some of these young starry-eyed entrepreneurs, especially at a breeding ground like south by, have a hard time getting that message? >> yes. the real problem is everybody has a great idea. they all want to do a start-up like mark zuckerberg in the dorm room. they haven't really thought through what if there are a thousand other apps and services doing the same thing, how am i going to stand out? i'm looking at people who do
11:04 am
wonderful things about how you can store your records, how you can store your archives for the future, how you can store your physical stuff in places like u-haul places that are airbnb meets u-haul. they're all very interesting, but they're all very local. i think it's consolidation that will help bring it to scale. they don't talk about consolidation. they just talk about how cool their idea is. >> you write a book about innovators. rich valuations is probably not a bad one, would you agree? >> we live in a wonderful country. if you don't believe it, come to south by, because you have people saying i've got an idea, i can get some capital, i can start something. this is the engine of job creation. we may be in a bubble with some of the big companies, and most of the companies here are showing off, are going to shake out. but some are going to make it.
11:05 am
some are going to consolidate. in america, you can take risks. you can fail two or three times and in your fourth roll of the dice, hit it big. >> speaking of which, let's talk some apple this morning. when it comes out next month, the apple watch could be a tough sell, according to a new reuters poll. 69% of americans say they are not interested in buying apple's new gadget. 52% agreed with that statement, that smart watches are a passing fad. only half of respondents said they were aware of the latest news. everyone's been trying to gauge people's interest. do you trust them? >> i don't really trust the surv surveys. frankly, i don't trust my own gut instincts. i think apple has over and over again shown that they know how to create something that will create desire. not just chase desire. steve jobs was once asked when they were doing the original mcintosh, shouldn't we do a
11:06 am
survey to figure out what people want? he said how do people know what they want until we show them what they want? i didn't know i needed a thousand songs in my pocket until that beautiful ipod came out. as henry ford once said. if i had asked in a survey what my customers wanted, they would have said a faster horse. >> what you've seen so far, this initial glimpse of the apple watch, is it that product that you didn't even know you needed? >> well, it's something i want, but i've not worn it yet. it's been a while since i've reported on apple. but to me, i use google glass and it felt weird to me. i didn't want to have those glasses on when i walked into somebody's house, but i would love to have a really smart watch that kept track of both my health and fitness, but also my e-mail and tech. so, it's something i want. >> i think you're speaking for a few of us at the table here this morning, walter. we'll see, as analysts and everybody else tries to gauge
11:07 am
just how many of these things they're going to sell. >> if carl quintanilla wears it, everybody will wear it. >> cramer's getting the first one, we know this. nadella spoke at the conference. josh lipton has been following that and has some headlines. >> carl, big data is big business, and microsoft's sew owe sayta nadella showed how the tech giant is capitalizing on that technology trend. nadella reminded an audience of 12,000 people that the software giant exists, as he put it, to serve businesses. he suggests that's a key difference between microsoft and its rivals in google and apple. >> we are not about being in this business because we have an ad business on the side or we're not in the business of purely
11:08 am
building devices. we're in the empowerment business. the business of enabling businesses to be able to drive their transformation through the power of digital technology. >> this morning, nadella announced new products and services designed to help businesses use data more effectively. so why all this interest in big data? this is where businesses are spending a lot of money. analysts and idcs say that the big data market reached $17 billion last year. the research firm says it will surge to $42 billion by 2018. microsoft already offers big data products like its sequel server, which is a $6 billion business. nadella also showed how he uses data in his own life. he took the stage wearing the microsoft ban. he showed the audience a snapshot of his daily activity versus russell wilson, quarterback of the seattle seahawks, who was also onstage
11:09 am
at the event this morning. nadella showed how many steps he walked, how many calories he burned. don't we all wish we got seven hours of sleep last night. that's good stuff. >> thank you very much. josh lipton covering microsoft for us out west as nadella speaks in atlanta. all that aside, the promise of the future, that is, a lot of people cutting numbers on microsoft. today it's ubs. plus all the effects from foreign exchange. that's a very still picture of walter, as we've obviously lost the satellite signal. i hope he has a good time in austin, because you know he's the star. you know he's the prince of the city right now. >> chock full schedule. i loved when he said if you don't know that we live in a wonderful country, go down to austin, check out south by, the innovation, the ideas there. really incredible stuff happening down there. it's great to have walter from
11:10 am
austin. >> our thanks to water isaacson for joining us today. the dow increase hanging on, despite the decline in l. coming up later on this morning, more on what to watch for in a moment. is now the time to sell netflix? one firm is making that call this morning and we'll talk about why. it seems like it was bound to happen eventually. twitter severely limiting the act scess of the latest crazy i social. that's when "squawk alley" continues in a moment.
11:11 am
now with the you can watch live tv anytime.
11:12 am
it's never been easier with so many networks all in one place. get live tv whenever you want. the xfinity tv go app. now with live tv on the go. enjoy over wifi or on verizon wireless 4g lte. plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit to learn more.
11:13 am
broad rally taking place this morning. oil up 200 points. let's bring in rich peterson. resilience in the face of oil. >> now we're a little bit positive. i think we're trying to pull out that positive march so we can have another positive quarter.
11:14 am
>> we're seeing some mna. do you think we're getting to that point that we're seeing mna that tells you we might be at the top of the cycle? >> after we had over $1 trillion in announced deals, market moved higher, so far in the first quarter, over $300 billion in deals. the markets moving higher this quarter. i think earnings will be a key factor going forward. had the big deal with simon properties. $20 billion, second biggest ever mna deal. and talk about lbos. last weekend, i asked some stats.
11:15 am
it will be announced today, being leonard green and tpg buying lifetime fitness, $4 billion. still negative year over year. still, to point to dow jones, if you don't mind, transports haven't confirmed anything. that's been difficult. >> we're back over $2 in jersey, in terms of oil prices. but i think the volatility is a factor there. >> you think buybacks are sustainable at these levels? we had a huge wave of them come through here last week. >> i think the companies are looking at cheap capital. year over year, strong. announcement with morgan stanley last week was the biggest ever buybacks of 2006. >> a lot of the dead issuance
11:16 am
move overseas. companies citing the strong dollar. and the relatively weak euro. and the changes in the swiss franc as reasons why maybe they're not going to issue debt in dollars. >> they're looking for where it can find attractive rates. we saw apple and other companies looking to price shares overseas. convertly, saw canada looking to price issue paper in the united states. so the debt market is a very, you know, large creature and it's going to go find placement anywhere it can find a good rate. >> are you a believer that leadership needs to switch hands, but from tech to financials? or something else? >> i mean, health care has been the leading sector. financials, while negative year over year, as a sector, reits have been the big gainers there. >> today i was struck by a wave of downgrades, whether it was disney or garmin or other
11:17 am
stories. felt like a win, for instance. i wonder if analysts are getting cold feet. >> third quarter expectations, negative 2.8% for the first quarter, but if you ex out energy, it's probably not that bad. to the extent that the energy softness can deliver relief to the consumer going forward, that may help others move ahead. >> in the dow in particular, we're beginning to see competition change a little bit later this week. what should investors be watching for when we see that switch, apple replacing at&t? >> well, again, with the dow being a price weighted average, movements in apple will have less impact than say goldman or other large price indices, as s&p fan or s&p person. i'm more biased view there.
11:18 am
>> go market wait. thank you, richard. when we come back, if jack ma has his way, you'll soon be able to pay with your face. details when we come back. in my world, wall isn't a street. return on investment isn't the only return i'm looking forward to. for some, every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal. start investing with as little as fifty dollars.
11:19 am
i am here to offer sophisticated investing strategies.
11:20 am
my technology can help you choose the right portfolio. monitor it. and automatically rebalance it. all without charging advisory fees, account service fees or commissions. that may be hard to compute. but i'm a computer. so trust me. it computes. say hello at
11:21 am
welcome back to "squawk alley" here. shares of taiwan semiconductor are higher. indicating that taiwan semi may have won bolt chips for next generation of smart phones and tablets based on their meetings. they believe the company won the business thanks to aggressive pricing and stronger production metrics. the news may not have been all that business a surprise to some industry watchers. last week, they believed that taiwan semi had won 70% of the
11:22 am
apple a-9 chip business. interesting moves here from taiwan semi. $126 billion company. back over to you. >> and it would be a big deal if true. in case you missed it, forget mobile payments. alibaba's jack ma says you may soon be paying with your face. speaking in germany last night, alibaba's executive chairman demonstrated a payment system that uses facial recognition for security. ma calling the technology the future of buying things online. and it used the demonstration to buy a gift for the mayor of hanover, germany. we talk often about biometrics being the next wave of security, carl, but this technology certainly would make it seem sooner than maybe we would have previously thought. >> stocks up more than 3% today. that's one of the best days it's had in about a week or so. but still has not been above the 200-day since the end of january or so. been a rough, rough go for baba. >> there's a lot that investors
11:23 am
are waiting for in that stock, even though the company is going out of its way to announce new technologies. >> keep our eye on that. pretty interesting. when we come back, shares of netflix slipping. we're going to tell you what you need to know. plus twitter severely limiting the hottest thing on social. that's live video streaming at meerkat. the company's response is coming up a little bit later on this hour. you're watching "squawk alley." woman: it's been a journey to get where i am. and i didn't get here alone. there were people who listened along the way. people who gave me options.
11:24 am
kept me on track. and through it all, my retirement never got left behind. so today, i'm prepared for anything we may want tomorrow to be. every someday needs a plan. let's talk about your old 401(k) today.
11:25 am
11:26 am
good morning, everyone. vladimir putin has resurfaced following a ten-day absence from the public eye that had the world speculating over the russian leader's health. the kremlin insisted all along that he was fine. a new study says air pollution may be linked to an increase in stroke. researchers at nyu langone medical center analyzed medical records of 300,000 people living in new york, new jersey, and connecticut. residented in the most polluted areas were 24% more likely to have a narrowing of the artery. blackstone is buying chicago's willis tower. the former sears tower was the world's tallest building for 25 years. and take a look at this video. an eagle set a record over the wee weekend for the highest recorded bird flight from a manmade structure. it flew from a tower in dubai.
11:27 am
they strapped a mini camera to its back. pretty dramatic footage. that's our cnbc news update for this hour. let's get back to "squawk alley." let's get back to the markets. bob pisani is on the floor to tell us what's moving. >> kind of a strange day. we've been moving in opposition to europe recently. europe up, u.s. down. dollar stronger, euro weaker. today we're getting a little reversal of that whole dollar euro trade. finally getting some strength in the euro. a little bit of weakness in the dollar doesn't seem to be creating quite the effects people thought. so here's the s&p. we're sitting right at the highs for today. on a day like today, you might think gee, they buy the u.s. and then selling europe. because that's what happens when you get these reversals in the currency fund.
11:28 am
but that's not happening either. germany's having a great day. germany's sitting at another historic high. italy is up. i think we were talking about hour or five-year highs there. france also sitting right near seven-year highs. so we're not getting the selloff in europe that you might have anticipated given the currency reversal. elsewhere, bonds are not reflecting the fears of a rate hike this week. yields are to the downside. they're having a very good day. utilities up 2%. reits are doing well. home builders are up. telecomm stocks are doing better. emerging market stocks are also doing better. the eem is up as well. you heard about oil. we've been talking about the new low in oil all morning. and yet the biggest oil companies out there are not only just seeing fractional declines here, exxon has gone positive. it was negative throughout the most of the morning but never
11:29 am
got very deep into the red. chevron looks like it wants to go positive as well. schlumberger, conoco, very modest designs. now, some of the exploration of production stocks are down two or 3%. but some of the big names in that space also are positive. i was saying today, this morning when i got up and saw the oil new lows, i said eog is going to start testing those old new lows we saw in the beginning of january. and that hasn't happened either. eog is really the big kahuna in that space. a lot of contrary moves here happening that you wouldn't necessarily think. finally, something that is not a big surprise. when you have on the front page of "the wall street journal," talking about a glut of steel in china, that they're exporting all the steel they are making that they don't need in the united states, that's not helpful. even today, a day you would think with a little bit of
11:30 am
weakness in the dollar, at least you would see a little bit of a rebound. we are just off the highs for the day. >> bob on the floor, thanks as always to you. we want to talk a little bit more about what's going on in the tech industry, some notable downgrades from analysts today. joining us now is slava ruben, good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> let's start with netflix. shares of the company are down by about 4% after the company was downgraded to sell from hold over at ever core. the firm pointing to an intensely competitive market. also more streaming news. sony is apparently in talks to sell rights to seinfeld for well north of $500,000 an episode. that according to reports. bidders include amazon, hulu and yahoo, but netflix has reportedly declined to participate in the process. slava, when you look at netflix, do you see a company that's going to have to do a better job
11:31 am
of competing in this current landscape? >> if there's any company that's been competing, it's been netflix, all the way back to blockbuster and youtube, now competing against amazon and others. i think the price is something that people here on the exchange will debate, with multiples and such. i think as a company, they're really impressive. i don't think any company has done a better job of getting their content on to every device than netflix. they're already on play station. they're already on the xbox, iphone, android. people get excited about hbo cutting and getting on to apple. so i think netflix is pretty impressive. in the long run, i don't bet against reid hastings. >> but the ever core note, especially with young people, it hasn't made the inroads it would have expected, even citing snap chat discover as a new competitor. do you see other entrants in the mobile world doing a better job
11:32 am
than netflix? >> i think there's no question that more people want to get more content out there. i think netflix overall is doing well. i think they have huge opportunities into international. i think the price is something that other people will debate. i can't say whether you should buy, hold, or sell, but thing the long run, netflix is an incredible company. >> no one's disputing that they've done a great job, but that the race is intensifying. that they will start to have to pay more as others come in and create a bid. do you dispute that? >> no, they bought "friends." they bought "friends" for about $500,000 an episode, which is a huge amount of money. just a few years ago, they were never getting into premium content. they just announced picking something up for a million dollars. so they're getting very aggressive. i think they've transferred well. i think other companies are going to have to compete with them, and, you know, i think the leadership there is doing a pretty good job. >> we're also seeing a downgrade of disney this morning.
11:33 am
btig saying the content cycle at least for that company looks fully valued. they recommended it at $30 a share, now it's above 100. there are some of these companies that have been developing and selling content very successfully. but now there is a lot of competition. i'm wondering, are the smaller guys -- are some of the campaigns that are grass roots campaigns, are they getting to that point where anyone can do this? >> i think that's already happened. it's cheaper than ever to produce content. it's cheaper than ever to distribute content. now it's all about getting attention. it's all about the attention to the economy. i think that netflix is doing an incredible job of getting that distribution network. and they're getting out there. i think that amazon is trying to make it cheaper in terms of content because they're giving it away. right now prime is, what, $99? and they're actually losing money on shipping. prime will probably have to go up. so now you have like a $120 prime package versus a, you know, like $15 netflix package. you really have to start thinking about it. i do think a lot of this is going online.
11:34 am
so you have now hbo, you have the new sling tv that came out at ces. so i think it will become very interesting. and in competition, i'll bet on reid. >> what about indie go-go? are you seeing films and different types of content being crowd-sourced on indie go-go, or are we still a ways away from that? >> as a matter of fact, we just had a moi v. that was up into the oscars for documentary. but just right now, last week, we just actually had con man, which is a conference man, which is based off of the folks behind "firefly," a tv show that got a huge following around 13 years ago and now their massive audience, who's been asking the studios to say bring it back, and they wouldn't bring it back. and now they already have over $2 million based on their 20,000 folks in funders. so you're really seeing organically, people are saying i want this back outside the studio system. >> we know how that worked for "veronica mars", too. very interesting. next up, we hear indie go-go has
11:35 am
a pretty cool record-breaking campaign right now involving, of all things, honey and the extraction of honey. tell us about it. >> i know it's wild. when we think about honey, we think about one of the oldest industries out there. you know, the high that people used today was patented in the 1950s and it hasn't really changed. now there's a brand-new product that allows you to get honey on tap just like beer. instead of having to put on the suit, having to smoke out the bees, having to get stung by the bees, you can literally just turn the crank and get the honey come out from gravity, just like beer. it's crazy. i actually think one of the oldest industries in the world is being revolutionized right now. how they're actually able to do it is the cell system that's created, bees see the cells, the honey comes down in gravity. it comes back together. the bees are like, i thought i filled this up already. they put the honey back in.
11:36 am
i think you're going to see a huge revolution in honey making. they're actually up to over $6 million in a few weeks and have been funded in like 120 countries around the world. >> while that is impressive, we were just talking to walter isaacson about how not every business is scaleable. more than $6 million from everyday investors going to this company. but how do you scale this company? not everybody has a beehive. not everybody will have a beehive. there's a limited market for that, no? >> it's true. i don't know if you have a beehive. >> i do know some people, who you both know, who do keep bees. >> let the guessing begin. >> if anything's going to be able to help more hobbyists become beekeepers, 20 years ago people probably said who's going to be able to make their own beer? and now you have microbrews everywhere. what's not to say you'll have microhoneys. you laugh. >> laughing in a good way. >> microhoneys are the new next thing. if they're getting stung, now
11:37 am
you have it in the suburbs. this is a father and son from australia that created this. and who knows? maybe now the big companies will be using this as well. just a matter of time before subpoena will put a sensor into this. there will be some technology. >> i know the foodies will love this. we'll keep our eye on it. good to see you. >> thanks for having me. the massive growth of start-ups a big theme at south by southwest this year. julia borstin caught up with one of them. >> hey, karl. >> jessica alba and brian lee revealing to me that the company tripled its revenue last year to $150 million. the company announced that it's now expanding to china. it's also adding feminine care and beauty products later this year. >> i mean, the millennials are
11:38 am
demanding it. everybody wants to live a healthy and safe life and they want the best chance at life, especially if they have little ones. and we give them access to products so they can do that. >> it's now in 3,500 stores, including whole foods, target, costco, and nordstrom. but 75% of its revenue is from online. and 80% of that is through subscriptions to its monthly bundles of products, giving the company a very close relationship with its customers, which alba says yields very valuable feedback. >> they let us know what they want us to make. it's why we're going into -- it's why we went into feeding. it's why we're going into feminine care and it's why we're going into beauty, because they've demanded it. >> alba says that one-on-one relationship with customers is so valuable, it's why you can't find her products on amazon. she says she has no plans to
11:39 am
make them available there any time soon. brian lee says the company has a strong balance sheet, so it's in no rush at all. you can find more of my interview with alba on >> thank you very much. julia boorstin. meerkat was the hot app at the moment, but can the company sustain its model? we'll get all the buzz from south by southwest in a moment. we'll keep our eye on oil, which continues to carve out a new low. currently $43.17, dips below 43 a moment ago for the first time in 2009. in the meantime, rick santelli, what are you watching? >> remember in college when you used to cram for midterms and final? i think we have a yield curve cram session going on. you know, the yield curve. whether it steepens, whether it flattens, how it steepens and flattens. this is going to be huge for the fed as they normalize. we're going to talk about all aspects of what may happen to the yield curve midweek, after the break.
11:40 am
opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. we've always been] at the forefrontumman, of advanced electronics. providing technology to get more detail... ♪ detect hidden threats... ♪ see the whole picture... ♪
11:41 am
process critical information, and put it in the hands of our defenders. reaching constantly evolving threats before they reach us. that's the value of performance. northrop grumman.
11:42 am
coming up at the top of the hello, crude oil, the dollar, the fed the biggest stories. we have all the trades you need to make. and our call of the day is that big downgrade for disney. shares are up double digits this year, but is this as high as they may go? the analyst who made that call defends his position. and yes, it's march madness. why you'll do better betting on stocks than your bracket during the tournament. that and much more straight ahead on the half. we'll see you in about 15.
11:43 am
>> sounds good, scott. thanks. in the meantime, we're watching oil. more stunning action today. bertha coombs at the nymex. >> truly interesting is that we have the dollar backing off a little bit from those multi-year highs last week. and yet, we've got lows in crude dating back to the beginning of the bull market. in march of 2009. while stocks in that time are up about 200%, i tweeted out a chart that showed that you've got oil actually now sitting some 7% below the march 2009 bottom there. and what's interesting is that it's really happening with wti, and that's all about the fact that our production is up, some 70% or 80% in the united states for that time. and we are now worried about perhaps topping out when it comes to storage. you're seeing this disconnect with brent also pulling back with the whole macro picture of the fact that there is so much oil production. you've got opec staring down u.s. producers, saying no, you back off.
11:44 am
you cut back. opec saying they believe u.s. producers will really start cutting back in the second half of the year by year's end. but for now, even as the rig count come -- rate count comes down, production levels continue to rise because a lot of that fracking production is so much more efficient than it used to be. meantime, we're not seeing the break on gasoline that we saw back in 2009. tom tweeted that back in 2009 when we hit these lows for crude, it was below $2 a gallon. but we are still above $2 at $2.20 and change, because those brent prices continue to hold up relatively. back to you. >> interesting. thanks a lot, bertha. bertha coombs this morning. let's check in with rick santelli once again. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. in a bypassed era where the economy was either good or bad, but we didn't have all the gps issues regarding how do we
11:45 am
discover or handicap if a maturity is rich or cheap, those days are long gone. and it's almost next to impossible to get a true bearing. but let's go back in time to when that was easier. yield curve. long end, short end. let's imagine the yield curve, everything's at zero interest rates. okay? flat yield curve. if the long end goes up 50 basis points, of course the curve steepens. if the short end goes up an equal 50 basis points, both are now up at 50 but the curve is still flat. why is any of this important? because in the old days, what would happen is the as the economy started to cook in greece, what would happen is the long end would continue to move higher and the curve would steepen. as things would potentially start to slow down, the opposite would happen. these rates would start to come down. sometimes even have inversions. and inversions on the short end rates, on the right side here are longer than the rates on the long end, well, those inversions usually resulted in recessions.
11:46 am
all sound simple, right? here's the problem. the problem is that the flattener is kind of long in the tooth on a macro level, whether you look at tens, twos, fives to 30s, fives to tens, but they have been steepening as of late. so what does the fed want? in my opinion, the fed would like to see the curve probably steepen a little bit, give banks a little juice in terms of their loan portfolio, so they would most likely like to see the yield curve, which is about this steep right now, maybe as our rates went up, steepen a little bit more. but here's the risk. the risk is, on the flatteners. if you ever see a major move in short end rates dramatically higher, it's almost kind of what is now referred to as the lehman model. you can't get the short-term funding you need. when it comes to the steeper side, we have to be very careful here, because we have liquidity scarcity issues and high quality
11:47 am
collateral like bunds and like treasuries. so what position should you have? most of the research of late, citi is being talked about today, says the flattener is the way to go and i don't disagree with that. the problem is it's how much and how long it lasts. i personally think that there is a possibility if the fed tightens, it could go long to the downside and steepen. but it might then ease back a bit. so it's a two-dimensional trade at a time where we can't define rich and cheap. remember, if conventional wisdom is flattening, you want to be very careful. this trade isn't, isn't where it was three years ago. back to kayla. >> all right. rick santelli in chicago. rick, thanks. when we come back, they've been going steady for under a month, but now a breakup between meerkat and twitter. it's all happening while the streaming app ceo is at south by southwest. that's next.
11:48 am
because it helps me skip the bad stuff. i'm good. that's what i like to call, the meta effect. 4-in-1 multi-health metamucil is clinically proven to help you feel less hungry between meals. experience the meta effect with our multi-health wellness line. i take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. because it gives me... zero heartburn! prilosec otc. the number 1 doctor-recommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years. one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn.
11:49 am
now with the you can watch live tv anytime. it's never been easier with so many networks all in one place. get live tv whenever you want. the xfinity tv go app. now with live tv on the go. enjoy over wifi or on verizon wireless 4g lte. plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit to learn more.
11:50 am
. . . . let's bring in ben willis at princeton security guroup. good morning to you. >> good morning. >> why? >> most of it is the indication that china is continuing to want -- continuing to be the leadership of the world economy. they're not giving up yet. i think that was probably the start. and the fact that we're starting to get used to the idea that oil
11:51 am
below $50 a barrel is actually a stimulus, in particular for the likes of china and japan. >> we're starting to get used to the idea that the fed will take out patient. that's the expectation,le although there could be some new language. >> rising rates are the indication of a healthy economy. while the chicken littles of the investing world and the bond market are looking at this as something that's nefarious and detrimental today, i don't want to be in bonds in this marketplace. and the market probably will have a slightly negative reaction. the fed has delayed it so long already, i think they're behind the curve. you may actually see a rally rather than a selloff in equities when it does happen. >> generally, markets are okay. into the cycle, they at some point, they start to fear what the fed is doing. >> i think it's been built in, and this has been going on for
11:52 am
some of us. and they've telegraphed it for so long. yes, the expectation in history would tell you that's going to happen. i don't think it will be much of a trade left, if it does actually happen. >> but the argument, ben, is that maybe the u.s. economy isn't as healthy as maybe we would have expected going into a potential rate hike. industrial production, empire manufacturing coming in below expectations. industrial production for two months in a row. >> it's still a 79 reading, so it's not a terrible reading. so it's an acceptable number, not necessarily -- again, for me, i'm not looking for interest rates to run to 5% overnight. i think that's going to be a very long, drawn out process. i think the first step of the fed to demonstrate their willingness to do it will be to take out the zero and go to a hard quarter rather than up against negative interest rates in the eurozone. >> meanwhile, oil, after
11:53 am
everybody on the rig count for the past four or five weeks, does it mean nothing? those rigs that came out? >> it slowed down, though, is the bullish argument for what's going on. you and i have talked about this. that market was thmanipulated b large players. i don't think you're likely to see that number rise any time soon because we know how quickly that can be turned back on. we have more oil on the top of the earth than we've had in 80 years, whether it's in the united states of america or whether it's in europe and north sea brent, it really doesn't matter. that's your supply and demand quotient you need to look at. >> meanwhile, any savings that consumers did have while oil and gas prices were low seem to be sitting in savings accounts. where do traders expect that to manifest itself and when? >> well, i think part of the money that is going to work, just anecdotally, because i think some of the car manufacturers are benefiting from car sales. but the other place money is
11:54 am
being spent, and i don't know where it would have come from had this not happened, is health care. i can tell you some of my children that are on obamacare have chosen to upgrade because they have a little bit more money to spend on a monthly basis. which is one of the reasons the health care group as a sector is one of the top performing sectors in my opinion. >> had a bit of a scare there on some hospitals, but that's been taken care of for now. thanks again. ben willis this morning in post nine. when we come back, apple's eddie cue none to happy with the latest documentary on steve jobs. we'll get his response. it kinda is. it's as crazy as you not rolling over your old 401k. cue the horns... just harness the confidence it took you to win me and call td ameritrade's rollover consultants. they'll help with the hassle by guiding you through the whole process step by step. and they'll even call your old provider. it's easy. even she could do it. whatever, janet. for all the confidence you need td ameritrade. you got this.
11:55 am
so if you get a trade idea about, say, organic food stocks, schwab can help. with a trading specialist just a tap away. what's on your mind, lisa? i'd like to talk about a trade idea. let's hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. so you can make your move, wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪
11:56 am
and start working on your next big idea. it's more than a nit's reliable uptime. and multi-layered security. it's how you stay connected to each other and to your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions, including an industry leading broadband network, and cloud and hosting services - all with dedicated, responsive support. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you're free to focus on growing your business. centurylink. your link to what's next. dentist appointment when my teeth are ready? ♪ can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing? ♪ can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? ♪ the answer is yes, it can. so, the question your customers are really asking is, can your business deliver?
11:57 am
twitter putting the brakes on high-flying live have a streaming start-up meerkat. 1992 now restricting meerkat's access to its data. we are limiting their access consistent with internal policy. their users will be able to distribute videos on twitter analog in with their twitter credentials. we asked meerkat's ceo if he'd ever consider selling to facebook or twitter for that matter. here's what he said. >> we're just focused completely on making this something awesome. i think the community still is amazing and still small. and i think that if we really
11:58 am
want to make a change, we'll need to have a bigger community and more people that are using the product and engaging with it and understanding that it's time to dissolve the decline between watchers and broadcaster and we try to do something that watchers are part of the content. and i think that's what -- that's the mission that is more important here than to sell a company or not. >> meerkat is just 15 days old. in a blog post, the company saying since last night, we watched our user base grow by 30%. so certainly astronomical growth for a company that's been called the it start-up, 2015. >> interesting dance between the platforms and the creators, the developers of apps for those platforms, as platforms may want to encourage success, right? encourage innovation, but don't steal our thunder completely. that seems to be the dynamic. >> and twitter just confirming that it has purchased its own
11:59 am
live streaming video app. we're still waiting for the cover to be taken off of that app. but certainly this seems to be the hot space for this year. >> coinciding with the periscope deal. eddie cue taking to twitter to criticize this new documentary about steve jobs. he wrote, very disappointed in sj:man in the machine. it's not a reflection of the steve i knew. he goes on to say the best portrayal is about to be released. "becoming steve jobs" the book, well-done and first to get it right. we're going to be joined by the book's authors next monday here on "squawk alley." apple, whether it's isaacson, this book, very protective of their corporate name. when things are written that they don't see in the same light, they tend to be very critical. >> yes, and it goes to be seen exactly what becoming steve jobs looked like. we do know after we discussed it
12:00 pm
last week that a lot of the company's executives have participated have been willing to give their firsthand accounts. >> what a testament to his ability and power that we're still debating his legacy all these years after the fact. with the dow up 203 points, let's get over to "the half." ♪ i need the dollar dollar is what i need ♪ >> welcome to "the halftime show." joe taranova, josh brown, pete najarian, and adam parker. our game plan today, it looks like this. mouse trap, why? top media analyst rich greenfield downgraded disney today. we're going to hear from him live and debate that call. spanning the global, our chief international correspondent michelle caruso-cabrera on greece, russia, and the stoes


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on